Zum sogenannten “Referendum über die katalanische Selbstbestimmung” – 4

Seht hierzu den schon einmal erwähnten Artikel vom 11.10.2013 mit dem Titel “Catalonia Wants ECB Seat After Referendum: Euro Credit” in “Bloomberg“.

Wir erfahren in diesem Artikel unter anderem: “The biggest obstacle to independence for Catalonia, which already runs its own schools, hospitals and police force, may come from European institutions.

“The Europeans are not interested in having Spain split up,” Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, said in a telephone interview. “If push comes to shove, the government in Madrid can expect strong European backing for blocking an outright independence movement for Catalonia.”

Seht zu dieser offensichtlichen Ablehnung der Referendumspläne von Artur Mas durch die Institutionen der Europäischen Union auch den Artikel vom 8.11.2013 von Victor Andrés Maldonado mit dem Titel “Europe Says `No´ to Artur Mas” in der Website “Euro Crisis in the Press” der “London School of Economics and Political Science“.

Im übrigen ist dieses Spiel von Artur Mas mit dem separatistischen Feuer und damit zusammenhängend auch mit dem geplanten “Referendum über die politische Zukunft Kataloniens 2014” nicht ohne Risiko für Katalonien selbst.

Denn unter anderem hängen die katalanischen Banken zur Zeit am Tropf der EZB, die damit de facto eine Veto-Stellung in dieser Referendumsfrage einnimmt.

Auch dies wird im hier schon zweimal zitierten Artikel vom 11.10.2013 mit dem Titel “Catalonia Wants ECB Seat After Referendum: Euro Credit” in “Bloomberg” klar gesagt.

Wir erfahren in diesem Artikel weiterhin: “Just as the Catalan government is funded by the Spanish state, the region’s banks are plugged into the ECB’s financing operations. Caixabank SA (CABK), which has a balance sheet the equivalent of 167 percent of the region’s gross domestic product, has 21.5 billion euros of debt outstanding from the central bank’s long-term refinancing operation, Chief Financial Officer Gonzalo Gortazar said on a conference call in July.

“They should be very scared,” Kirkegaard said. “They run the risk in an extreme case of being cut off from ECB liquidity which would be very, very difficult. The ECB has a de facto veto over” the push for independence”.

Auch die Journalistin Maria Tadeo, die unter anderem als Bloggerin aktiv ist, hat in einem Blogartikel in der Website der britischen Tageszeitung “The Independent” das Spiel von Artur Mas mit dem separatistischen Feuer als riskant für Katalonien charakterisiert.

Seht hierzu den Artikel von Maria Tadeo vom 10.8.2013 mit dem Titel “Artur Mas’ nationalist gamble is risky business for Catalonia” in der Website von “The Independent“.

Wir erfahren in diesem Artikel unter anderem: “Swiss bank UBS said in a research note entitled ‘Can Catalonia leave? Hardly’ that secession could translate into a four per cent budget surplus for Catalonia and a 78 per cent debt-to-GDP ratio- a good deal for the region considering that Spain’s debt is set to widen to 90.5 per cent of its GDP in 2013, according to the country’s finance ministry.

The flip side? Catalonia may have to exit and re-access the European Union. In this case, the new state would be shut down from its main market- Spain and the EU account for 63 per cent of its exports- while facing large debt redemption due in 2013. This could ignite uncertainties over Catalonia’s future among investors and trigger a “sovereign default, bank runs and a huge drop in wealth and income” according to the UBS report.

Similarly, JPMorgan (see the PDF: Catalan challenge asks real questions of Europe) estimates that, while an independent Catalonia could be “fiscally credible”, the economic benefits would remain scarce- assuming that transition costs are “minimal” and there are “no significant disruptions” in trading with the rest of Spain-an unlikely scenario.

So far, Mr Mas has capitalised on passionate nationalistic feelings for political reasons but he may have to tame his separatist rhetoric for economic ones. Separatists often argue that Catalonia is Spain’s cash cow and this has fuelled a fiscal deficit of approximately eight per cent of the Catalan GDP. This means that taxes collected in Catalonia are used to fund nationwide services and support weaker regions in what the Spanish government calls the principle of ‘national solidarity’.

However, this is not exclusive to Catalonia as Madrid, Valencia and the Balearic Islands also make a greater contribution to the country as a whole based on what they receive in return from the central government. Madrid runs a fiscal deficit accounting for approximately five percent of its regional GDP, while Valencia, the most indebted region alongside Catalonia, runs a six percent fiscal deficit.

But perhaps the greatest obstacle for Catalonia’s self determination lies at the heart of European politics. Last week, Jose Manuel Barroso, president of the European Commission, implied that Catalonia as an independent state will not be automatically granted membership of the EU nor the monetary union.

Under the Lisbon Treaty, states that secede must re-apply for membership. Mr Mas has repeatedly said he wants Catalonia to stay in the EU and keep the single currency. The integration of a new member must be approved by all existing member states, including Spain, which would surely use its veto to block any attempts at enlargement.

Catalonia’s nationalist movement could turn into a pan-European headache for the EU, triggering a domino effect among Belgian-Flemish separatists and Italy’s Northern League. The EU would want to avoid this at all costs as it battles the worst economic and financial crisis since World War II. Locked out of the Spanish market and isolated from Europe, Catalonia may soon find out that Mr Mas’ nationalist gamble is an ill-handled political manoeuvre”.

Creative Commons Lizenzvertrag Zum sogenannten “Referendum über die katalanische Selbstbestimmung” – 4 Klaus Gauger steht unter einer Creative Commons Namensnennung-NichtKommerziell-KeineBearbeitung 3.0 Unported Lizenz

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