Zum aktuellen US-Haushaltsstreit – 29

Einen Artikel mit dem Titel “Why the Debt Ceiling Matters” hat Joe Nocera am 7.10.2013 in der “New York Times” veröffentlicht.

Wir erfahren in diesem Artikel unter anderem: “The word we keep hearing is “catastrophe.”

“A U.S. Default Seen as Catastrophe, Dwarfing Lehman’s Fall,” screams the headline in Bloomberg Businessweek. “A default would be unprecedented and has the potential to be catastrophic,” says a Treasury Department report issued on Thursday — two weeks before the government is expected to begin running out of cash.       

But what does “catastrophic” actually mean in this context? In the summer of 2011, when Republicans refused to raise the debt ceiling unless President Obama caved to their extortionist demands, the same word was bandied about. It scared the political class enough that they kicked the can and avoided a default.       

This time around, the need to raise the debt ceiling doesn’t seem to be generating nearly the same concern. Indeed, Tea Party Republicans seem to be almost rooting for the government to default, as if that would somehow bring about the smaller government they so yearn for.       

But this is incredibly wrongheaded. A failure to raise the debt ceiling, should it come to that, would likely inflict a different kind of pain than sequestration or even a shutdown of the federal government. It won’t make the government smaller. But it does have the potential to diminish the value of one of America’s greatest assets — the backing of its debt — while throwing the world economy into chaos. (…).

Painful choices would have to be made. Right now, the Treasury Department says it does not have the authority to pick and choose which creditors to pay. But, in the event of a default, it is hard to imagine that the government wouldn’t make some tough decisions about who should get paid in the short term — and who would have to wait. And, though this would infuriate millions of Americans, bondholders in China would likely get their money ahead of, say, Social Security recipients.       

“From a purely cost-benefit analysis,” says Mark Zandi of Moody’s Analytics, “not paying bondholders would wind up costing the U.S. much more than not paying Social Security recipients” — because if bondholders lost faith in Treasuries, it would cost the government billions more in interest payments each year.       

During the 2011 debt-ceiling crisis, consumer confidence dropped by 22 percent. When consumer confidence falls, people are less willing to spend and businesses are less willing to hire. That’s how recessions — or depressions — begin, and that may be the most important consequence of all. (…).

Why on earth would we ever risk that? Why?

Tja, so sehe ich das allerdings auch.

Mittlerweile scheinen der aktuelle “government shutdown” und die bedrohlich näher rückende “debt ceiling crisis” in den USA auf die US-amerikanischen Aktienindizes durchzuschlagen.

Seht hierzu den Artikel vom 8.10.2013 mit dem Titel “Stocks Close Down Sharply On Shutdown, Debt Ceiling Concerns” in der “Huffington Post“.

Wir erfahren in diesem Artikel unter anderem: “The stock market is closing sharply lower as budget gridlock in Washington brings the U.S. closer to a default on its debt. (…).

The Standard & Poor’s 500 index closed down 20 points, or 1.2 percent, to close at 1,655.45. It was the 11th loss in the last 14 days, and the index’s biggest drop in six weeks.

The Dow Jones industrial average was down 159 points, or 1.1 percent, to 14,776.53.

The Nasdaq composite fell 75 points, or 2 percent, to 3,694.83, also the largest drop in six weeks.

Seht hierzu zum Beispiel auch den Artikel vom 7.10.2013 mit dem Titel “Stocks close sharply lower as shutdown continues, Dow ends at one-month low; Vix soars 13%” in der Website von “CNBC“.

Creative Commons Lizenzvertrag Zum aktuellen US-Haushaltsstreit – 29 Klaus Gauger steht unter einer Creative Commons Namensnennung-NichtKommerziell-KeineBearbeitung 3.0 Unported Lizenz

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