Zu den “Abenomics” in Japan – 1

In letzter Zeit wird in den führenden Tageszeitungen und Online-Portalen immer wieder von den sogenannten “Abenomics” berichtet. Einen deutschen Wikipedia-Eintrag hierzu gibt es bisher noch nicht.

Gemeint ist mit den “Abenomics” die Wirtschaftspolitik des aktuellen japanischen Ministerpräsidenten Shinzō Abe, der seit dem 26. Dezember 2012 der 63. Premierminister von Japan von Japan ist. Shinzō Abe ist zugleich der Vorsitzende der Liberaldemokratischen Partei Japans.

Im englischen Wikipedia-Artikel zu den erfahren wir zu den “Abenomics” unter anderem: “Abenomics (a portmanteau of Abe and economics) refers to the economic policies advocated by Shinzō Abe, the current Prime Minister of Japan. Abenomics is meant to resolve Japan’s macroeconomic problems. It consists of monetary policy, fiscal policy, and economic growth strategies to encourage private investment. The detailed policies includes inflation targeting at a 2% annual rate, correction of the excessive yen appreciation, setting negative interest rates, radical quantitative easing, expansion of public investment, buying operations of construction bonds by Bank of Japan (BOJ), and revision of the Bank of Japan Act”.

Nun, der Hintergrund dieser aggressiven Wirtschaftspolitik, mit der das Wachstum Japans deutlich angekurbelt werden soll, ist die stagnierende wirtschaftliche Situation Japans seit Beginn der 1990er-Jahre.

Im Wikipedia-Artikel “Economic history of Japan” erfahren wir unter anderem: “Deflation in Japan started in the early 1990s. On 19 March 2001, the Bank of Japan and the Japanese government tried to eliminate deflation in the economy by reducing interest rates (part of their ‘quantitative easing‘ policy). Despite having interest rates down near zero for a long period of time, this strategy did not succeed.[ Once the near-zero interest rates failed to stop deflation, some economists, such as Paul Krugman, and some Japanese politicians spoke of deliberately causing (or at least creating the fear of) inflation.In July 2006, the zero-rate policy was ended. In 2008, the Japanese Central Bank still has the lowest interest rates in the developed world, deflation has still not been eliminated.. Systemic reasons for deflation in Japan can be said to include:

  • Fallen asset prices. There was a large price bubble in both equities and real estate in Japan in the 1980s (peaking in late 1989).
  • Insolvent companies: Banks lent to companies and individuals that invested in real estate. When real estate values dropped, many loans went unpaid. The banks could try to collect on the collateral (land), but due to reduced real estate values, this would not pay off the loan. Banks have delayed the decision to collect on the collateral, hoping asset prices would improve. These delays were allowed by national banking regulators. Some banks make even more loans to these companies that are used to service the debt they already have. This continuing process is known as maintaining an “unrealized loss”, and until the assets are completely revalued and/or sold off (and the loss realized), it will continue to be a deflationary force in the economy.
  • Insolvent banks: Banks with a large percentage of their loans which are “non-performing” (loans for which payments are not being made), but have not yet written them off. These banks cannot lend more money until they increase their cash reserves to cover the bad loans. Thus the quantity of loans are reduced sooner and less funds are available for economic growth.
  • Fear of insolvent banks: Japanese people are afraid that banks will collapse so they prefer to buy gold or (United States or Japanese) Treasury bonds instead of saving their money in a bank account. People also save by owning real estate”.

Im Klartext: Ausgehend von einer geplatzten Immobilienblase im Jahre 1989 ist Japan ab dem Jahre 1990 in eine Deflationsspirale hineingerutscht, die unter anderem dazu geführt hat, dass Japan in den 1990er-Jahren kaum mehr Wachstum erzielt hat. Im Fall der 1990er-Jahre redet man in Japan vom “verlorenen Jahrzehnt” (der “lost decade“).

Und auch im neuen Jahrtausend blieb das Wachstum Japans gering. Seht hierzu eine entsprechende Chart “Japan GDP growth rate” in “Trading Economics“.

Zu den Inflationsraten (bzw. zur Deflation) in Japan seit den 1990er-Jahren seht eine entsprechende Chart “Japan Inflation Rate” ebenfalls in “Trading Economics“.

Nun ist dies im Fall von Japan natürlich besonders ärgerlich, weil Japan eigentlich ein industriell ungeheuer leistungsfähiges Land ist. Trotz der negativen Vorzeichen ab den 1990er-Jahren hat Japan immer noch ein deutlich höheres BIP als Deutschland und steht in der Rangliste der größten Volkswirtschaften der Welt nach den USA und China auf dem dritten Platz.

Seht hierzu den Wikipedia-Artikel “Liste der Länder nach Bruttoinlandsprodukt“.

Japan hat für das Jahr 2012 ein BIP von 5.963.969 Millionen US-Dollar erzielt. Deutschland hat für das Jahr 2012 ein BIP von 3.400.579 Millionen US-Dollar erzielt. Zwischen Japan (dritter Platz auf der Weltrangliste der größten Volkswirtschaften der Welt) und Deutschland (vierter Platz auf der Weltrangliste der größten Volkswirtschaften der Welt) haben wir also einen großen Abstand.

Nun, der aktuelle japanische Premierminister Shinzō Abe hat sich zu seinem Wirtschaftsprogramm natürlich selbst öfters geäußert.

Seht hierzu zum Beispiel den Artikel vom 7.6.2013 mit dem Titel “PM says ‘Abenomics’ is only way to spur growth in Japan” in “Japan Today“.

In diesem Artikel erfahren wir unter anderem: “Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said Thursday his policies were “the only way” to fix the world’s third biggest economy, days after the IMF warned it could all go wrong. His comments came in an exclusive interview with AFP, after the International Monetary Fund welcomed his big-spending and loose-money plans but cautioned there were “considerable downside risks” to Tokyo’s ballooning national debt. “The Japanese economy has been stagnant and has suffered from deflation over the last 15 years,” the premier said. “Our GNI (Gross National Income) has diminished some 50 trillion yen. Under these circumstances, Japan was losing its position in the world. “To counter this, I will push through drastic monetary policy, fiscal measures and a growth strategy that will stimulate private-sector investment, so that the economy can be rid of deflation.”

Und tatsächlich waren die von Shinzō Abe ergriffenen Maßnahmen (bzw. die “Abenomics“) vom erwünschten Wachstumseffekt her gesehen ungewöhnlich schnell deutlich wirksam.

Seht hierzu zum Beispiel den Artikel vom 16.5.2013 mit dem Titel “Japan’s GDP growth more than expected under ‘Abenomics’” in “GlobalPost“.

Wir erfahren in diesem Artikel unter anderem: “Japan’s GDP growth blew past analysts estimates for the first quarter, giving a boost to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s reform efforts, dubbed ‘Abenomics’.  The economy grew at an annual rate of 3.5 percent in the first three months of 2013 as consumers increased their spending and exports to the US picked up, Japan’s Cabinet Office said Thursday. The figure exceeded analysts’ expectation of 2.7 percent growth of gross domestic product. The strong growth figures are a welcome relief in Japan after last year’s sluggish 1 percent growth rate and 15 years of deflation. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe made economic reforms a cornerstone of his political campaign and followed through since taking office in late December. “Japan is clearly back from stagnation last year,” Naoki Iizuka, an economist at Citigroup Inc. in Tokyo told Bloomberg”.

Seht hierzu ebenfalls den Artikel vom 15.5.2013 mit dem Titel “Japan Posts Surge in Economic Growth” in “The Wall Street Journal“.

Wir erfahren in diesem Artikel unter anderem: “Japan’s economic growth accelerated swiftly at the beginning of this year, the most concrete sign yet that new stimulus policies sparking euphoria in financial markets are starting to lift companies and consumers as well. The country’s gross domestic product, the broadest measure of goods and services produced across the economy, grew at an annualized pace of 3.5% in the first three months of the year, as consumers loosened their purse strings and exports to the U.S. picked up, lifted by a weaker yen. The figures reported by the government early Thursday marked a sharp improvement from the tepid 1% growth rate at the end of last year, which followed six months of contraction. It was also considerably stronger than the 2.8% forecast by economists polled in advance by The Wall Street Journal”.

Seht hierzu auch den Artikel vom 15.5.2013 mit dem Titel “Japan reports another quarter of economic growth” in “UPI.com“.

Wir erfahren in diesem Artikel unter anderem: “Japan’s economy, spurred by stimulus measures, grew at an annual rate of 3.5  percent in the first quarter, the Cabinet Office said Thursday. From quarter to quarter, the gross domestic product grew 0.9 percent in the  three months ended March from the previous quarter. It was the second straight  quarterly growth. The Cabinet Office credited the latest results to healthy consumer spending  and higher exports, Kyodo News reported. The results should please the government of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe,  which has made it a priority to pull the country out of chronic deflation and  kick-start the world’s third-largest economy through various stimulus measures.  Japan’s central bank also has doubled its inflation target to 2 percent. These measures have already helped stem the yen’s appreciation against the  U.S. dollar. A lower yen makes Japanese goods cheaper. The U.S. dollar has been  trading at over the 100-yen mark lately.”

Seht hierzu auch den Artikel vom 16.5.2013 mit dem Titel “Japan GDP Jumps Most in Year as Consumers Open Wallets” in “Bloomberg L.P.”

Wir erfahren in diesem Artikel unter anderem: “Japan’s economy expanded the most in a year last quarter as consumer spending and export gains outweighed the weakest business investment since the wake of the March 2011 earthquake and tsunami. Gross domestic product rose an annualized 3.5 percent, a Cabinet Office release showed in Tokyo. Private consumption, making up 60 percent of GDP, contributed 2.3 percentage points to the jump. The Bank of Japan may upgrade its assessment of the economy after a May 22 policy meeting, according to people familiar with the central bank’s discussions. Today’s report shows while consumers — aided by a stock-market surge — are responding to the reflation campaign mounted by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Bank of Japan chief Haruhiko Kuroda, companies remain cautious. That may change as the yen’s 21 percent slide against the dollar in the past six months spurs profits and Abe embarks on reducing regulations hampering the world’s third-biggest economy. “Japan is clearly back from stagnation last year,” said Naoki Iizuka, an economist at Citigroup Inc. in Tokyo. “The key from here is whether Abe can unveil a strong growth strategy. If he succeeds, that will boost business investment to support growth.”

Seht hierzu auch den Artikel vom 16.5.2013 mit dem Titel “Japanese growth surges on Abe Impact” in der “Financial Times“.

Tatsächlich also hat Abe es geschafft, die Wachstumsrate Japans im ersten Quartal 2013 mit einem Schlag auf + 3,5% anzuheben.

Zu dieser Strategie gehörte wohl auch eine deutliche Abwertung des japanischen Yen gegenüber dem US-Dollar um ca. 21%. So konnte Japan im letzten Quartal auch deutlich mehr Exporterfolge erzielen als bisher.

Noch im Oktober 2012 stand der Yen bei ungefähr 80 Yen zu einem US-Dollar. Mittlerweile steht er bei ungefähr 100 Yen zu einem US-Dollar.

Seht hierzu zum Beispiel den Eintrag “US-Dollar – Yen (USD-JPY) – Historische Kurse” in “Finanzen.net“.

Nicht zuletzt auch für die japanischen Automobilhersteller hat sich diese Strategie deutlich bezahlt gemacht.

Creative Commons Lizenzvertrag Zu den “Abenomics” in Japan – 1 Klaus Gauger steht unter einer Creative Commons Namensnennung-NichtKommerziell-KeineBearbeitung 3.0 Unported Lizenz

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