Trotz des eitlen Selbstlobs von Wolfgang Schäuble: Die Eurokrise ist massiv zurückgekehrt 76

Ein sehr gutes Fernseh-Interview mit dem Titel “STIGLITZ: Spain Is In A ‘Vicious Downward Spiral’ Right Now” hat Joseph Stiglitz am 11.6. in “Business Insider” gegeben.

Die Kurzzusammenfassung des Interviews durch die Redaktion von “Business Insider“: “Simply put, Europe is a mess right now and the nature of the problem lies in  Spain. As money moves out of the banks in Spain and into Germany, the banks  get weaker and weaker,” says renowned economist Joseph Stiglitz. “The lending  gets weaker and weaker. The economy gets weaker and weaker. It’s a vicious  downward spiral.”

Joseph Stiglitz redet in diesem Interview zunächst über die schweren Konstruktionsfehler des Euros und der Eurozone, die bisher nicht behoben worden seien. Er kritisiert auch den bisherigen “Europäischen Fiskalpakt” als ein mehr oder weniger suizidales “common agreement on austerity“.

Dann schwenkt Stiglitz auf die aktuelle Situation in Spanien ein. Dort würden die Banken aufgrund der massiven Kapitalflucht seit vielen Monaten gnadenlos ausbluten, und wie Joseph Stiglitz zurecht bemerkt, profitierten die aktuell gut funktionierenden und starken Volkswirtschaften in der Eurozone wie Deutschland von dieser Entwicklung, denn Deutschland gelte in dieser Situation natürlich in Europa als “sicherer Hafen“.

Das Geld aus diesen spanischen Banken wandere also unter anderem nach Deutschland, in die deutschen Banken und auch die deutschen Staatsanleihen.

Für die deutschen Staatsanleihen müsse jetzt Deutschland keinerlei Risikoaufschläge mehr bezahlen. Deutschland verdiene teilweise sogar an diesen Staatsanleihen, denn Deutschland könne in der aktuellen Situation bei den entsprechenden Auktionen an den Finanzmärkten sogar Geld dafür verlangen, dass die Anleger diese deutschen Staatsanleihen kaufen dürfen.

In Spanien hingegen sei die Situation jetzt desaströs, das betreffe nicht nur die spanischen Banken, die jetzt massiv finanziell ausbluten würden und damit auch nicht mehr in der Lage seien, die heimische Wirtschaft ausreichend mit Krediten zu versorgen. Das betreffe auch die allgemeine wirtschaftliche Lage in Spanien, denn die Arbeitslosenquote in diesen Ländern liege jetzt bei über 25%, die Jugendarbeitslosigkeit bei ca. 50%.

Wie Joseph Stiglitz zurecht bemerkt, seien solche Zustände langfristig nicht tragbar. Und daher sei es nun die entscheidende Frage, ob die deutschen Politiker verstünden (und damit auch das deutsche Wahlvolk), dass ein Zerbrechen des Euros und der Eurozone für Deutschland letztendlich viel teurer käme als die notwendigen und bisher leider nicht erfolgten Maßnahmen, um die südeuropäischen Krisenstaaten wie Spanien (das betrifft natürlich auch Griechenland, Portugal und Italien, in denen die Situation ähnlich wie in Spanien ist) zu stützen und zu retten.

Letztendlich liege die Verantwortung also bei den politischen Entscheidungsträgern in Europa, vor allem bei den deutschen Entscheidungsträgern, also konkret aktuell bei Angela Merkel und Wolfgang Schäuble.

Schaut euch also dieses klare und gute Fernseh-Interview von Joseph Stiglitz mit dem Titel “STIGLITZ: Spain Is In A ‘Vicious Downward Spiral’ Right Now” vom 11.6. in “Business Insider” in Ruhe an.

Einen weiteren guten Artikel mit dem Titel “The Euro’s Latest Reprieve” hat Joseph Stiglitz am 3.7. in “Project Syndicate” veröffentlicht.

In diesem sehr guten und klaren Artikel mit dem Titel “The Euro’s Latest Reprieve” bemerkt Joseph Stiglitz unter anderem: “Like an inmate on death row, the euro has received another last-minute stay of execution. It will survive a little longer. The markets are celebrating, as they have after each of the four previous “euro crisis” summits – until they come to understand that the fundamental problems have yet to be addressed.

There was good news in this summit: Europe’s leaders have finally understood that the bootstrap operation by which Europe lends money to the banks to save the sovereigns, and to the sovereigns to save the banks, will not work. Likewise, they now recognize that bailout loans that give the new lender seniority over other creditors worsen the position of private investors, who will simply demand even higher interest rates. (…).

A year ago, European leaders acknowledged that Greece could not recover without growth, and that growth could not be achieved by austerity alone. Yet little was done.

What is now proposed is recapitalization of the European Investment Bank, part of a growth package of some $150 billion. But politicians are good at repackaging, and, by some accounts, the new money is a small fraction of that amount, and even that will not get into the system immediately. In short: the remedies – far too little and too late – are based on a misdiagnosis of the problem and flawed economics.

The hope is that markets will reward virtue, which is definedas austerity. But markets are more pragmatic: if, as is almost surely the case, austerity weakens economic growth, and thus undermines the capacity to service debt, interest rates will not fall. In fact, investment will decline – a vicious downward spiral on which Greece and Spain have already embarked.

Germany seems surprised by this. Like medieval blood-letters, the country’s leaders refuse to see that the medicine does not work, and insist on more of it – until the patient finally dies.

Eurobonds and a solidarity fund could promote growth and stabilize the interest rates faced by governments in crisis. Lower interest rates, for example, would free up money so that even countries with tight budget constraints could spend more on growth-enhancing investments.

Matters are worse in the banking sector. Each country’s banking system is backed by its own government; if the government’s ability to support the banks erodes, so will confidence in the banks. Even well-managed banking systems would face problems in an economic downturn of Greek and Spanish magnitude; with the collapse of Spain’s  real-estate bubble, its banks are even more at risk. (…).

In the absence of a level playing field, why shouldn’t money flee the weaker countries, going to the financial institutions in the stronger? Indeed, it is remarkable that there has not been more capital flight. Europe’s leaders did not recognize this rising danger, which could easily be averted by a common guarantee, which would simultaneously correct the market distortion arising from the differential implicit subsidy.

The euro was flawed from the outset, but it was clear that the consequences would become apparent only in a crisis. Politically and economically, it came with the best intentions. The single-market principle was supposed to promote the efficient allocation of capital and labor. (…).

Germany worries that, without strict supervision of banks and budgets, it will be left holding the bag for its more profligate neighbors. But that misses the key point: Spain, Ireland, and many other distressed countries ran budget surpluses before the crisis. The downturn caused the deficits, not the other way around.

If these countries made a mistake, it was only that, like Germany today, they were overly credulous of markets, so they (like the United States and so many others) allowed an asset bubble to grow unchecked. If sound policies are implemented and better institutions established – which does not mean only more austerity and better supervision of banks, budgets, and deficits – and growth is restored, these countries will be able to meet their debt obligations, and there will be no need to call upon the guarantees. Moreover, Germany is on the hook in either case: if the euro or the economies on the periphery collapse, the costs to Germany will be high. (…).

Europe’s temporizing approach to the crisis cannot work indefinitely. It is not just confidence in Europe’s periphery that is waning. The survival of the euro itself is being put in doubt(Fettdruck von mir).

Creative Commons LizenzvertragTrotz des eitlen Selbstlobs von Wolfgang Schäuble: Die Eurokrise ist massiv zurückgekehrt 76Klaus Gauger steht unter einer Creative Commons Namensnennung-NichtKommerziell-KeineBearbeitung 3.0 Unported Lizenz

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